According to headline figures released by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), and sent to us *by email; around one in eight properties across Scotland is now classed as being at medium risk of flooding. The figures, drawn from SEPA’s latest National Flood Risk Assessment (NFRA) 2025, apparently point to a notable increase in flood exposure nationwide, including in the Highlands.

SEPA states that approximately 400,000 homes, businesses and essential services are located in areas of medium flood risk: defined, according to the agency, as having a greater than 0.5% likelihood of flooding in any given year. This is reportedly an increase from 284,000 properties identified in 2018, with projections suggesting the number could rise to 634,000 by 2100, largely attributed to climate change.

The NFRA is described by SEPA as a strategic tool intended to provide a national overview of flood risk in Scotland. The 2025 assessment apparently goes further than previous editions by also indicating where flooding is expected to be deepest, not only where it may occur.

• 25,000 properties are said to be at medium risk from coastal flooding, with more than one in three homes in these areas apparently exposed to deeper flooding. SEPA suggests this category may see the largest proportional increase this century, linked to rising sea levels and storm surges.
• 84,000 properties are reportedly at medium risk of river flooding, including 5,000 residential properties currently in areas facing deeper flooding of at least 30cm, a figure projected by SEPA to double by 2100.
• 327,000 properties are apparently at medium risk from surface water and small watercourses. This number is projected to increase by around 200,000 properties by the end of the century, although flooding from this source is generally described as shallower.
• SEPA also estimates that, according to its assessment, the annual cost of flooding in Scotland is approaching £500 million, and continues to rise.

Commenting on the findings, SEPA’s Head of Environmental Forecasting and Warning, Eleanore Cooper, described flooding as Scotland’s most severe climate-related risk, citing long-standing impacts on communities from the Borders to the Highlands and Islands. She said the NFRA provides evidence to support coordinated action, guide investment decisions and strengthen flood resilience.

NFRA 2025 is positioned by SEPA as a key foundation for Scotland’s Flood Resilience Strategy and the next cycle of flood risk management planning. It is expected to inform National Flood Risk Management Plans, due for consultation in early 2026, followed by Local Flood Risk Management Plans, to be published by Lead Local Authorities in 2028.

SEPA also notes that the latest assessment benefits from richer property data, improved climate projections and enhanced modelling methods, which the agency says makes direct comparisons with the 2018 assessment more complex.

For Highland communities, access to the underlying data behind these headline figures will be particularly important. Across large parts of the Highlands, there has been extensive tree felling associated with energy infrastructure and related developments, often in upland and catchment-sensitive areas. Whether and how such localised land-use changes have been factored into flood modelling and at what scale is not yet clear from the headline information released.

While mitigation measures such as planting replacement saplings elsewhere are often cited, these do not address the immediate and localised impacts of woodland loss on runoff, water retention and flood behaviour within specific glens, burns and catchments. Understanding whether these realities are reflected in flood risk assessments matters to communities living with the consequences.

Transparency is key. Without access to the supporting data, everything becomes hearsay and opinion. When the supporting datasets are released in Spring 2026, communities will need the opportunity to examine how conclusions have been reached locally, how different risk factors have been weighted, and whether alternative interpretations are possible. Open scrutiny of the evidence is essential if flood resilience planning is to command confidence and reflect lived experience on the ground.

Read the National Flood Risk Assessment 2025 report 

*Sent Friday 26 December - dated 18th attached